• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1956

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 19 19:20:06 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 191920
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191919=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1956
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

    Areas affected...southeast Wyoming...parts of the Nebraska
    Panhandle...and much of eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 191919Z - 192045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
    afternoon in the central High Plains with a threat for large hail
    and severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate destabilization has occurred across eastern
    Colorado amid moist upslope flow (mid 60s dewpoints) and
    temperatures in the 80s. SPC mesoanalysis has indicated inhibition
    is decreasing along the Front Range. At least some inhibition is
    expected to remain across the Plains this afternoon which will
    likely limit storm initiation, however, scattered thunderstorm
    development is expected along the higher terrain which should
    intensify as it moves east into the more unstable airmass across the
    Plains this afternoon and evening. Mid-upper level flow of 30 to 40
    knots combined with easterly flow at the surface will provide ample
    wind shear for some storm organization including the potential for a
    few supercells Despite the relatively warm temperatures aloft
    beneath the upper-ridge axis, steep lapse rates and the moderate
    shear should support some hail threat, especially early in the storm
    lifecycle when storm mode is more discrete. Later this afternoon and
    especially into the evening, expect the threat to transition to
    severe wind gusts with one or more clusters of storms which may
    develop out of the afternoon/early evening convection.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/19/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ndLSUw5IXd14gJzSlBsUvPubbGIplAV-tUFdRDDAwKB_2hQ-pU5EWXa_WaHqnR1t_QfmpJTg= ujtn5CrYXZxFb3iqnA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 37890474 38540471 38970472 39720475 40790473 42110458
    42450298 41310246 39900251 38220328 37520393 37890474=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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