ACUS11 KWNS 250431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250430=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-250630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Montana and extreme northwest North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 250430Z - 250630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail threat are expected
with convection into the early morning hours across northeast
Montana.

DISCUSSION...Right-entrance region of a mid-level jet over southern
SK may be partly responsible for recent uptick in elevated
convection that is spreading into northeast MT. Latest surface data
suggests a weak low is tracking across southeast MT toward western
ND. Primary pacific frontal surge is associated with a gradually
expanding cluster of thunderstorms from southern Phillips to
northern Rosebud County. Severe wind gust has recently been reported
at JDN along the leading edge of this activity. Latest HREF guidance
has a reasonable handle on this scenario and subsequent movement
should spread across the remainder of northeast MT early this
morning. Unless multiple supercells develop within this expanding
cluster, hail production should be limited and generally less than
one inch. Even so, an isolated severe report or two can not be ruled
out, and most likely will be a gust approaching 50kt. Given the
marginality of this convection, current thinking is a severe
thunderstorm watch is not currently needed.

..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!52D8zDjD9JH82X3cMiRbctB5y19hyt7Wr-NK5wjQfaSqROORhy_1R-WIpKKCmMdtmvh09OWuY= EDhUzXl6yO7aAOyTBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 48100763 49440522 48780356 47030593 48100763=20


=3D =3D =3D
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