ACUS11 KWNS 260050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260050=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-260215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Areas affected...Eastern SD into extreme north-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 647...

Valid 260050Z - 260215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 647
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues in and near WW 647.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storm mergers have resulted in the development
of a supercell cluster across Gregory and Charles Mix Counties in
SD, with hail up to baseball size reported within the last hour.
Strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) and
sufficient deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z ABR sounding) will
continue to support this cluster in the short-term, with a threat of
large hail, severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range, and possibly a
tornado given the presence of modestly enhanced low-level SRH.
Longevity of this cluster later this evening remains somewhat
uncertain due to increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat could
eventually approach the southeast edge of WW 647.=20

Other cells have recently developed near the Beadle/Spink county
border, near the edge of WW 647. These cells could also evolve into
a supercell or two and pose a threat of hail and localized severe
gusts this evening, though they may also struggle with increasing
MLCINH. Local watch expansion may be needed, depending on
observational trends regarding these cells.

..Dean.. 08/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7jf7Xk8sBGVE4HjuhxpCjhYa_q0LyquPOiMpRHCpiATIlPmgdwLTaPpuLltft_xx5g42Ivii3= wC5dOfbh7HoV1zJC0o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON 43169936 44579921 45339803 45429721 44659724 43189803
42699857 42599914 42679927 43169936=20


=3D =3D =3D
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