• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2054

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 11 20:27:29 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 112027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112026=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-112300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2054
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of southern Idaho into southwestern
    Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112026Z - 112300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity through the afternoon posing a risk of severe hail and
    wind. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated and marginal
    to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough evident in water vapor
    imagery this afternoon is nosing into southwestern Idaho. As a
    result of the corresponding focused ascent, thunderstorms will
    continue to increase in coverage and intensity across the area
    through the afternoon and evening hours. Despite strong forcing for
    ascent and sufficient shear for supercells and organized storm
    modes, the moisture and instability are rather modest.=20
    Consequently, storms will be relatively high based, which will favor
    strong evaporative cooling and isolated severe gusts through the
    evening hours.

    Additionally, strong outflow winds from these thunderstorms will
    likely impact existing fires across the region, which may hinder
    fire suppression/containment efforts.

    ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Sjzf0CRnTZ0fQvLIVKA2CtLzu-K7orvbVjaB9zdJiT-qacnHFceLXFkckrNLdX5hmemWZgp8= tuwAwkVYR0fw8NJpFY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

    LAT...LON 43431733 44231670 45571521 46281430 46781351 46841240
    46421176 45791135 44651137 43871199 43161318 42471464
    42131610 41951702 42401729 43431733=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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