ACUS11 KWNS 121002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121001=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 668...

Valid 121001Z - 121300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 668 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for showers and thunderstorms with potential to
produce tornadoes may linger near coastal areas of the western
Florida Panhandle beyond daybreak. Farther inland this potential
appears more limited, but could increase some across parts of
southern into central Alabama toward 10-11 AM CDT. A new Tornado
Watch will be issued prior to expiration of Tornado Watch 668.

DISCUSSION...The surface low associated with Francine is now
progressing into south central Mississippi, near/southeast to east
of McComb. Based on the surface pressure fall/rise couplet evident
in observational data, the center may gradually take on a more
northerly to north-northwesterly track toward the Jackson vicinity
into mid morning. As this occurs, strongest low-level wind fields
are forecast to continue shifting inland to the north and northeast
of the circulation, generally above a residually stable
boundary-layer air mass. However, low-level hodographs continue to
become enlarged and clockwise curved across and inland of the
coastal western Florida Panhandle, and model forecast soundings
suggest that these profiles, potentially conducive to convection
with occasionally strengthening mesocyclones and a risk for
tornadoes, may persist beyond daybreak.

Complicating the tornadic potential, mid/upper 70s surface dew
points have largely remained confined to the offshore waters,
maintaining stable conditions inland of perhaps immediate coastal
areas. This may not change much into the 13-14Z time frame.=20
Farther inland, at least some surface warming may increasingly begin
to destabilize the boundary-layer northward through portions of
south central Alabama by 15-16Z. However, based on forecast
soundings, it remains uncertain whether this will occur before
low-level wind fields/hodographs become less conducive to tornadic
potential, as Francine continues a northward track.

..Kerr.. 09/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5YVQP06VkRsYfOTz4uKJQZj3d5P0dSSy45VXVosQri6Px0C3VtvbOFTk82sZRlKnypa2Q9sF3= vkZgVTFyzYopPYWa8A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 29598527 30088608 30218694 30778733 31348780 31948787
32148708 31798609 31148504 30308497 29598527=20


=3D =3D =3D
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