• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2061

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 12 19:41:05 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 121941
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121940=20
    ALZ000-122215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2061
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of central into south AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121940Z - 122215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some tornado threat could evolve this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness has thus far limited
    destabilization north of a warm front draped across south AL.
    However, some modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching or
    exceeding 500 J/kg) will be possible from south to north this
    afternoon as the warm front moves slowly northward. One persistent
    cell is ongoing northeast of Montgomery, and additional low-topped
    supercell development will be possible along/north of the warm front
    through the afternoon.=20

    Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift northward in
    conjunction with the warm front through the afternoon, but will
    generally remain favorable, with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 150-300
    m2/s2 range in areas where modest destabilization is possible. Some
    tornado threat could evolve with time this afternoon, contingent on
    the development of additional low-topped supercells. Observational
    trends will be monitored regarding the need for a Tornado Watch.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-bll8uzNh6u-dBTl7gGQBT8KwdSvJet21xtWKMdGD33p5lIVkDgh8AQ3YurTTXY90CrlXXAH-= eJ0P1cd5TQWH-ltHtI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32018746 32638764 33078779 33918793 33548696 33218620
    32888563 32598540 32088512 31848518 31718528 31708551
    31768600 31858669 31958717 32018746=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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