ACUS11 KWNS 182335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182334=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota into far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182334Z - 190100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally
severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours. A watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across
portions of northeastern ND, focused within a north/south-oriented
confluence band, and near an antecedent differential heating zone.
This activity may be aided by a lobe of midlevel ascent (evident in
water-vapor imagery) rotating around the eastern periphery of a
midlevel low over eastern MT. Middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate
surface-based instability ahead of the developing storms.
Additionally, regional VWP depicts a long hodograph with modest
low-level hodograph curvature -- characterized by around 45 kt of
effective shear. Given subtle mesoscale forcing, storm maturation is
uncertain (especially given increasing nocturnal static stability),
though the aforementioned parameter space will conditionally support
a couple organized storms/supercells capable of producing large hail
and locally severe gusts. Any severe threat here is expected to
remain too isolated for a watch at this time.

..Weinman/Hart.. 09/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7tczntYsfIRAouPBRaLBiQ6J1h-C5StRPsmqDhuGr9VCllcYJBJ7QZ_gzsz_JZo0d3VEE6uHw= ko0CW5h3QqqoBd-NkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47429858 47399898 47609941 47889981 48140007 48590026
48940030 49090015 49159962 49169781 49089698 48839669
48129670 47719702 47429858=20


=3D =3D =3D
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