ACUS11 KWNS 271929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271928=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-272130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...parts of southern VA and northern NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 688...

Valid 271928Z - 272130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will remain possible for a couple
more hours. An additional tornado watch beyond the 22Z expiration of
WW 688 appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Tornado potential has become focused in two regions
within WW 688, one near the northeast NC/southeast VA border area
and a separate corridor near along the central VA/NC border. The
lead convective band has considerably decayed over the past couple
hours, but remnants of it continue to move northeast along the
northeast NC/southeast VA border area. Surface temperatures and dew
points are a couple degrees lower downstream, suggesting the threat
will struggle to reintensify. But favorable low-level shear and
still adequate tropical boundary-layer moisture suggest a
conditional tornado threat remains evident.=20

Farther west, multiple low-topped cells have rotated and produced at
least one brief TDS thus far. Surface temperatures have warmed into
the low to mid 80s within cloud breaks across central NC and this
has compensated for the persistent reduction in low-level SRH per
the FCX VWP. A brief tornado or two will remain possible with small
discrete cells in this region for another couple hours.

..Grams.. 09/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pTdi7lWwwJqmoSXfPv3VwPZYcB5vTpiBnbWvBFMTdS7LlXgHj-g08GrrUnUk9Swi3VMwIJqq= D_Ee5OKFkS5HX2yIWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36937599 36077590 35517682 35627713 36557731 36967770
37097854 36287914 36197962 36448000 37198000 37477964
37487927 37077731 37297671 36937599=20


=3D =3D =3D
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