ACUS01 KWNS 182141
SWODY1
SPC AC 182141

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana
tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and
occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana
Coast.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and
moisture advection are already underway across coastal portions of
TX and LA, as indicated by 19Z mesoanalysis. Current thinking is
that the low-level warm-air/moisture advection will continue to
increase and boost elevated CAPE to 1000 J/kg along the coast with
the approach of a mid-level impulse currently situated over NM.
Elevated thunderstorms should develop later this evening. Mainly
hail is expected given elongated hodographs. However, if any
supercellular structure can materialize along the southeast LA coast
and become rooted in the boundary layer tonight, a damaging gust or
tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 02/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/

...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving
into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by
daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an
arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north
TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the
TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin
will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast
TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across
parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast
soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will
likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity
will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this
evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat.
The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse
rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely
limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can
become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe
gusts may accompany the stronger storms.





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ACUS01 KWNS 241231
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the south-central High Plains spanning eastern Colorado into western
Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms are also possible across
portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

...South-central High Plains..
Within an amplified upper flow regime, a moderately strong belt of northwesterly winds aloft will exist over the region, with one or
more low-amplitude ridge-peripheral disturbances expected to pivot
eastward later today over the central Rockies. A pronounced surface
anticyclone will settle into the northern Plains, forcing the
leading edge of more continental air into the southern Plains by the
end of the period. A corridor of low-level warm advection will
become established from southern Wyoming into western Oklahoma
coincident with the northwest/southeast-oriented front.

Widely scattered generally non-severe elevated storms will probably
persist this morning across western Kansas, with some potential that
the storms may help focus some renewed/increasing convective
potential later today from southwest Kansas into western
Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle. Aided by increasing low-level
upslope flow, other potentially severe storms are expected to
develop across the Colorado Front Range vicinity by late afternoon
and drift southeastward through early/mid-evening. A couple of
supercells will initially be possible, before storms tend to cluster
by evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns
regionally, although current thinking is that overall potential
should remain relatively isolated.

...Northeast including New York/Pennsylvania...
A prominent upper-level trough over Ontario/Quebec and Great Lakes
will shift eastward today. An associated surface front is forecast
to advance into western portions of New York/Pennsylvania by early
afternoon. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to aid
destabilization ahead of the front and convective temperatures
should be breached by around 20-21z; although, deep-layer lapse
rates are not expected to be particularly steep (0-6 km values
around 6.5 C/km). These storms could generate locally strong winds,
and perhaps some hail, with the main risk from mid-afternoon into
early evening.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/24/2025

$$

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