835
AXNT20 KNHC 181039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1035 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends 31N71W to E Cuba. A
low pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight,
which will support the development of gale-force winds and very
rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed.
Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the
region through Thu night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone
near 07.5N12.5W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N18W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and west of 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh
northerly winds east of 87W and seas of 6-11 ft. An altimeter pass
from a few hours ago showed seas to 11 ft in the Loop Current,
west of the Dry Tortugas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh N winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf will
continue to diminish today. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure
gradient in the western half of the basin will result in fresh to
strong S winds today and tonight ahead of the next cold front
forecast to come off the coast of Texas Wed morning. The front
will reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz Wed night, from Cape
Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit the basin
Thu night into Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to strong
N winds and rough seas. Winds may approach gale force Thu
afternoon off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish across the
basin on Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from SE Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are behind the front
spilling in through the Yucatan Channel. A few showers are noted
near the boundary. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate seas are noted in the south-central Caribbean. In the
remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas follow a
cold front that extends from SE Cuba to Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Honduras. The weakening frontal boundary will continue eastward
before dissipating tonight into Wed. Building high pressure in the
wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of
pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage late today through Wed evening. In the central
and portions of the SW Caribbean, fresh to strong NE-E winds will
prevail through early next week. High pressure will build near the
Bahamas over the weekend and trade winds will increase across the
region, with near gale-force winds developing offshore Colombia.
Rough to very rough seas will build off Colombia and into the SW
Caribbean Wed night into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1007 mb low pressure is located near 25N58W. Strong to
near gale-force E-SE winds are occurring north of 26N and between
43W and 61W. Rough to very rough seas are found in the area
described. The center is devoid of deep convection but scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 20N and
between 43W and 52W. Additional development of this low is not
expected as it moves northwestward into an environment of strong
upper-level winds and dry air on Tuesday. A surface trough extends
from the low center to the northern Leeward Islands.

As previously mentioned, cold front extends 31N71W to SE Cuba.
Scattered showers are ahead of the front but mainly N of 24N.
Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted in the wake of the front.
Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front with seas of 8 to 11
ft. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are across the waters
from 12N to 24N between the coast of Africa and 35W, including
through the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Rough to very
rough seas in long period NW swell are affecting the Madeira and
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
aforementioned low pressure will persist in the northern
semicircle as the low moves north and exits the forecast waters by
Wed morning. Strong to near gale-force winds will precede and
continue to follow a cold front that extends from 31N71W to E
Cuba. The front will reach from near Bermuda to N Hispaniola this
afternoon, and from 31N60W to Puerto Rico Wed morning. A low
pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight,
which will support the development of gale-force winds and very
rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed
evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the region through Thu night. Looking ahead, a third strong front
is forecast to come off the Florida NE coast Thu.

$$
Delgado
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