• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0946

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 24 03:12:31 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 240312
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240311=20
    NEZ000-WYZ000-240515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0946
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1011 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

    Areas affected...the NE Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 240311Z - 240515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A lone supercell may yield a swath of large hail over the
    next couple hours. Confidence is low in additional storm development
    and longevity of the severe threat into early morning, rendering
    watch issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A lone discrete supercell with a history of large hail
    reported up to golf-ball size has persisted over the past hour or so
    across a portion of southeast WY. With 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies
    sampled by the CYS/LNX VWPs, this supercell may persist for another
    couple hours despite surface temperatures in the low to mid 60s
    across the western NE Panhandle. Even cooler surface temperatures in
    the 50s farther east and diminishing MUCAPE for elevated parcels
    should eventually yield a weakening trend to this supercell into
    early morning.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hfblhZEM5Fzkeap2ovInfjtLK93lBsQk05jD4FizuyRUIFx_AJZzaoagorEG2vU26Y1wy1K2= Q21tCTsNp_fWT2qLJo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41970446 42120405 42060295 41870242 41370224 41210232
    41060271 41010314 41780433 41970446=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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