ACUS11 KWNS 240648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240647=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...south-central and southeast KS into northern and
central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314...

Valid 240647Z - 240815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible with thunderstorm clusters
across Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A
greater damaging wind risk may develop over the next couple hours as
an organizing cluster moves southeast across south-central KS into
northern OK.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters are ongoing early this morning
across portions of central into northeast OK, southeast KS and
southwest MO within a warm advection regime atop an EML between
850-700 mb. This activity may sporadically intensify and produce
hail up to 1.25 inch diameter given 7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse
rates and strong MUCAPE. While effective shear is quite good,
updrafts are likely not taking full advantage of favorable low-level
shear typically conducive for supercell development, tempering the
overall risk with these thunderstorm clusters.=20

Upstream across southwest KS, and within Severe Thunderstorm Watch
314, an organizing cluster of storms will continue to shift
east/southeast toward south-central KS/north-central OK over the
next few hours. This activity will track along the theta-e/MUCAPE
instability gradient, and on the nose of a 30-40 kt low-level jet.
While radar trends have shown outflow just ahead of this cluster,
there is some potential new updrafts could develop along the
outflow, or convection could ingest the outflow as the bowing
cluster continues to organize and intensify as it tracks into better instability/low-level moisture with southeast extent. Depending on
short-term trends, a new watch may be needed downstream of WW 314
across portions of northern OK/southeast KS and vicinity.

..Leitman.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_t4jhJV85LZn1gx67oxZaNaDuX2g4XTsy9GPx4aavZlwYvF7VU8_0xowBAzck7PPGkFCwBKV4= dnaYDr23OaIvfYUSnY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38269902 37609635 36979429 36349452 35029556 35009687
35049740 35739792 37059907 37519959 37939952 38269902=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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