ACUS11 KWNS 241922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241921=20
FLZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...parts of south Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241921Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with
scattered storms this afternoon. A WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of south FL, strong diurnal heating atop
seasonably deep moisture has eroded any remaining morning
inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms have initiated along the typical
diurnal sea breeze boundaries and should continue to do so through
this afternoon. Despite weak background ascent, 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
from the MFL sounding suggests a few robust updrafts will develop. A
few of these stronger storms may eventually result in one or more
clusters as outflow gradually consolidates. Modest deep-layer shear
should support some updraft organization, and isolated hail/wind
gusts appear possible with any of the stronger cores that sustain.
Given the lack of broader forcing and relatively limited shear, a
broader severe risk worthy of a WW appears unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4l1cF3sOkSWoGEkN7SKlbtqLeJ_nc0192QHEGAfbs_0q_WnxtdMfMBRXLvVhFqLX59EBmvLi4= 0Y8nskcB3PLbj3cHCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25908145 27048239 28418215 28718083 27158015 26667999
25478019 25248081 25908145=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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