AWUS01 KWNH 300948
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-301545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into Northwest TX
and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300945Z - 301545Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms this
morning may result in a few instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a couple
of relatively concentrated MCS clusters traversing the southern
High Plains from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle, and
separately down to the southeast over northwest TX and far
southwest OK. This convection has been generally tending to grow
in organization over the last couple of hours and is being
facilitated by the arrival of low-amplitude shortwave energy
arriving over the High Plains downstream of a broader upper trough
over the Western U.S.

This energy though is interacting with a broad warm air advection
regime with increasingly moist and unstable low-level south to
southeast flow seen advancing up across much of the southern
Plains region. With some low-level CIN in place, MLCAPE values are
on the order of 1500+ J/kg in the vicinity of these convective
clusters. The activity is also generally aligned north of a warm
front returning northward across western and central TX.

Over the next few hours, the aforementioned shortwave energy
should favor convective sustenance with both convective clusters
expected to drop generally southeastward into the persistent and
slowly veering moist/unstable low-level flow. The veering of the
low-level flow going through the mid-morning hours will be most
pronounced across areas of northwest TX and the TX Panhandle which
will be important as this will likely favor some convective
regeneration and potentially some repeating cell-activity around
the southern and southwest flanks of each convective cluster.
Outflow boundaries in time will likely become better defined which
in itself will also act as a catalyst for renewed convection.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms should reach 1 to 2
inches/hour, and some localized storm totals especially across
areas of northwest TX may reach 3 to 4 inches this morning since
portions of this region will likely see impacts from both
convective clusters. Some spillover of this convection through
southwest OK will be expected as well and locally heavy totals
possible here too.

Some localized 3-hour FFG exceedance is suggested in the 00Z/06Z
HREF guidance, and with the localized repeating nature of some of
the cells, a few localized instances of flash flooding will be
possible.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35340005 35049898 34559792 33979728 33139748
32869846 33009958 33490100 34040164 34840163
35250109

= = =
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AWUS01 KWNH 050907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-051505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0563
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into West-Central and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050905Z - 051505Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to broken areas of convection will continue
this morning across areas of the TX Panhandle down into
west-central and southwest OK. Sufficiently high enough rainfall
rates coupled with slow cell-motions may foster at least localized
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows broken areas of
cold-topped convection over areas of the TX Panhandle with the
activity tending to expand further in coverage off to the east
into areas of west-central to southwest OK.

The activity is focused along an instability gradient north of a
stationary front focused across areas of western and northern TX.
MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg are in place and there is
relatively divergent flow aloft working in tandem with a corridor
of stronger low-level moisture convergence to help facilitate the
development and expansion of the convection.

Some additional increase in the concentration of convection may
occur from the TX Panhandle down into southwest OK going through
the mid-morning hours, and the cell-motions are expected to be
rather slow which will favor some potential for locally excessive
rainfall totals.

The PWs are running about 2 standard deviations above normal over
the region, and rainfall rates are expected to locally reach 1 to
2 inches/hour with the stronger storms. The 00Z/06Z HREF guidance
favors some spotty totals going through mid-morning of 2 to 4
inches and this may result in a localized concerns for some flash
flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36380063 36199964 35599819 34699799 34239887
34430077 34880216 35380274 35810283 36370216

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AWUS01 KWNH 030931
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-031500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...northern TX into southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030929Z - 031500Z

Summary...An axis of training heavy rain is expected to impact
portions of northern TX into southern OK through 15Z with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches are
expected through 15Z along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...Looping regional radar imagery through 09Z showed a
QLCS progressing eastward across OK at roughly 40-50 kt but the
southwestern flank of this convective line has largely stalled
across northwestern TX, between US 180 and US 380 to the north of
Abilene. Area VAD winds at 850 mb showed 40-45 kt from the south
across central to western TX, overrunning the rain-cooled airmass
where 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was present along and south of the
outflow boundary (per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis). In addition to the
low level forcing in place, flow aloft was diffluent and
divergent, within the left exit region of a RAP-estimated 110-120
kt upper level jet max crossing Big Bend NP.

Despite the typical diurnal cycle favoring weakening of the low
level jet through 15Z, RAP forecasts suggest only slight weakening
of the 850 mb winds (into the 30-40 kt range) as a shortwave
trough axis over the southern AZ/NM border translates eastward
this morning. However, infrared cloud tops have been warming
across northwestern TX over the past hour, perhaps due to a
combination of the intrusion of dry air aloft as seen on Layered
PW imagery and weakening moisture flux.

Despite the recent weakening, a flash flood threat will remain
across the Red River Valley over the next few hours as areas of
training will likely persist into the mid-morning hours with storm
motions parallel to the low level axis of forcing. The threat for
training and 1 to 2+ in/hr rates is expected to shift ENE across
the Red River into portions of southern OK through 15Z along with
additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher).
Flash flooding will continue to be possible over the next few
hours with an expected weakening of rainfall intensity and
training potential toward the end of the MPD valid time (13-15Z).

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35269523 35099451 34269451 33389623 32939780
32710002 33489970 34339837 34829718 35079643


$$
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