ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.

A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.

Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday,
with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged
to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it
shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before
moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing
cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the
Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the
edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late
morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will
be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great
Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower
Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates,
sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging
winds will be possible.

Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few
supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the
dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is
weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should
be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline
will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in
this regime would be capable of large to very large hail.

...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma...
Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would
likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and
damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into
an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the
period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of
the D2 period.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS
PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the
Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys
and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be
from the Trans Pecos to East Texas.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday
with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to
West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the
late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough
amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to
severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday
afternoon/evening.

...Trans Pecos to East Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across
central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances
southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and
ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass
becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
supercells with a primary hazard of large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front
from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best
flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New
York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far
north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level
moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud
cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating
and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where
heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover,
but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore,
within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana
there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for
severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and
highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040551
SWODY2
SPC AC 040549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast
and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the
Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front
from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and
central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon.
In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and
promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward
into the region.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday,
some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected
along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into
eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the
forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations
will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New
Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline,
where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm
development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be
rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large
hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the
low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and
low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado
potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into
the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into
the early evening.

The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the
later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually
promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could
persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to
differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend
largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect.
Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though
low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a
linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the
greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High
Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How
severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and
the preceding convection.

...Florida...
With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the
Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few
strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea
breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective
shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be
possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary.

...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley...
While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday
morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface
heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced
mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45
kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging
winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 130537
SWODY2
SPC AC 130536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific
Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains
over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a
narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern
Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening
upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the
northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute
to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and
weakly capped environment.

...Central to Northern Plains...
Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the
next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a
southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture
return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by
Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening
surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to
progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late
afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors
largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale
growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially
be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a
strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to
upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an
increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops
southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of
convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD
into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and
promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front.

...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic...
A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any
synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through
the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support
diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar
to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak
low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote
transient storm organization. While a similar
thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of
the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best
severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the
DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead
of the mid-level vorticity maximum.

..Moore.. 05/13/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 160558
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great
Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low centered across the western Great Lakes Saturday
morning will shift east through the day and move over the Northeast
by 12Z Sunday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will expand south
from the southern Great Lakes to the Southeast. Farther west, a
weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance from northern
Mexico into the Southern Plains. A mid-level jet streak associated
with this mid-level shortwave trough will overspread portions of central/northern Texas and into Oklahoma on Saturday. A strong
mid-level jet streak will move into the Intermountain West on
Saturday and amplify a trough across the western CONUS.

...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.
This convection and cloudcover associated with it, casts
considerable uncertainty on destabilization, particularly across the
Northeast. However, mid-60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the
cold front as it moves eastward through the day. This moisture,
combined with cooling temperatures aloft. Could be sufficient for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail.

The most favorable zone for severe storms will likely exist across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. This zone is far
enough south to likely remain mostly cloud free which will promote
surface heating and destabilization. In addition, the stronger
mid-level flow is forecast to overspread this region which would
support storm organization and the potential for supercells. Given
the greater instability and shear with potential for supercell storm
mode, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear most likely within
this region.

...Southeast...
The cold front will likely become stalled across the Southeast on
Saturday. South of this front, moderate to strong instability is
forecast with 50 knots of flow parallel to the boundary. Forcing
will remain weak along this boundary with minimal surface
convergence and mostly neutral heights aloft. Therefore, storms are
possible along this boundary, and could be supercellular if they
form, but coverage should be isolated if any storms form at all
given the weak forcing.

...Central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Louisiana...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across central/northern
Texas Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s and 500mb temperatures around -10C. Weak
large scale forcing will overspread the dryline during the afternoon
as a right entrance region of the upper-level jet overspreads
northern Texas. Any subtle large scale forcing will likely be
sufficient for rapid storm development along the uncapped
dryline/triple point in north-central Texas by mid-afternoon. Large
hail (some 2+ inch) will be the initial threat from supercells along
the dryline. However, CAM signals suggest a combination of left and right-moving supercells congealing into a cluster/MCS rather quickly
with an increasing severe wind threat. These mode concerns limit
higher hail/tornado probabilities at this time, despite a very
unstable and strongly sheared environment across the region.

Additional supercells may develop Saturday evening and into early
Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks as isentropic
ascent increases with the strengthening low-level jet. These storms
will pose a primary threat of large hail.

...Utah into Southeast Idaho and Southwest Wyoming...
Rapidly cooling temperatures aloft across the Great Basin on
Saturday will result in weak destabilization and numerous storms. A
deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for
severe wind gusts from the stronger cores.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central
Plains on Friday with more isolated strong to severe storms possible
across portions of western Texas and southeast Florida.

...Synopsis...
A relatively flat ridge will be present across the central Rockies
on Friday. Moderate flow across the higher terrain will result in
lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. A dryline will
extend from the surface low across western Kansas and into the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas.

...Northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas... Strengthening southerly flow will back through the day with
consistent boundary layer moistening ahead of the a dryline across
northeast Kansas. This will likely result in moderate instability
with steep lapse rates extending from the surface to the mid-levels
within the strongly mixed zone along the dryline by mid to late
afternoon. Upper-level forcing will be somewhat nebulous, but as the
low-level flow backs and strengthens, increased isentropic ascent
and upslope flow should support scattered storm development during
the evening. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...West Texas into the Texas Panhandle...
Hot conditions will develop across West Texas on Friday with a very
deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms will likely develop along the
dryline during the late afternoon to early evening with some
organization. Storm mode is the primary factor limiting greater
probabilities at this time. Modest shear may support some supercell
structures amid moderate to strong shear. However, the deeply mixed
boundary layer will promote strong downdrafts which may support
rather quick clustering and a more multicell mode. A zone from near
Midland to Wichita Falls may eventually need a slight risk of storm
mode remains favorable for a more widespread severe hail/wind gust threat.

...Eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas into Arkansas...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
central Oklahoma into central Kansas on Friday morning. However, the
low-level jet will not be as strong and storm coverage/intensity may
not be that great. By Friday night, more widespread elevated
thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and into parts of
Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, and western Arkansas. Large hail may
be possible from this overnight elevated activity.

...Eastern Florida...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present across
Florida today. Moderate instability will be in place south of a
stalled frontal zone across central Florida. Thunderstorms are
expected along the sea breeze near the east coast of Florida. Modest
mid-level flow (25 to 30 knots) will result in sufficient shear for
some multicell storm organization. Isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest
threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest
and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage
could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across much of
the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into central and southwest Texas. Surface dewpoints near
and to the south of the front will be in the lower to mid 70s F,
which will contribute to strong destabilization in some areas by
midday. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary
in the afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move southeastward across
southwest and south-central Texas, where a severe threat appears likely.

NAM forecast soundings late Tuesday afternoon near the instability
maximum have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
around 35 knots, which should support supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible,
with supercells that develop intense cores. As the cluster expands
in coverage, and moves eastward into south-central Texas, a
wind-damage threat is also expected.

Further eastward into southeast Texas, an MCS is forecast to move
away from the area during the morning. It its wake, a slightly more
stable airmass should keep convective development more isolated
during the afternoon. A marginal severe threat will be possible with
any cells that can initiate and persist as the airmass recovers.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains southwesterly over the southeastern U.S. At
the surface, a front is forecast to be located from the vicinity of
southeast Texas extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf
Coast states. A moist and unstable airmass is expected near and to
the south of the boundary over the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast. From the morning into early afternoon, a linear
MCS is forecast to move from southeast Texas into south-central
Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the MCS, a
wind-damage threat is expected to develop as the line gradually
intensifies. Some models suggest that strong instability will
develop across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley by midday,
which would support a locally greater wind-damage threat.

Further to the east, moderate instability will likely develop over
parts Alabama and Georgia by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates
during the afternoon may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts
of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central
High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern High Plains...
At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be
place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an
area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the
south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually
modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the
southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a
few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over
this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal.

Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective
initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will
gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability.
Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis
have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in
the afternoon and evening.

Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the
central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and
steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat.

...Southeast...
West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast
on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in
place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern
Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of
maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence.
Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind
gusts with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...GEORGIA...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from parts
of the Eastern Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Georgia/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Gulf Coast States...
At mid-levels, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, as a jet streak translates eastward across the Southeast.
Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place
from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will
likely result in moderate destabilization across much of this
airmass by midday. Scattered thunderstorm development, aided by
topographic forcing, is expected to take place in the southern and
central Appalachians during the early afternoon. Convection will
move eastward into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
states during the mid to late evening, where a severe threat will
likely develop. The increase in large-scale ascent and deep-layer
shear associated with the approaching mid-level jet will be a driver
for the severe threat Friday afternoon and evening.

NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis during the
afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1500 J/kg, and that 0-6
km shear will increase into the 50 to 60 knot range. While the
low-levels are forecast to remain veered to the southwest, strong
speed shear will be present in the 850 to 500 mb layer. This will be
favorable for supercells and bowing line segments. 0-3 km lapse
rates are forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km, which will support a
potential for damaging wind gusts. Supercells will also be capable
of producing isolated large hail, especially in areas where the
maximum potential for surface heating is realized. Although
low-level shear is not expected to be that strong, any supercell
that becomes intense could produce a brief tornado. The severe
threat is expected to move eastward onto the Atlantic Coastal Plain
in the late afternoon, and toward the Atlantic Coast during the
evening.

...Western Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, flow is forecast to become north-northwesterly over
the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, in the wake of
an exiting trough. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be
located over the western Great Lakes, where flow will be
northwesterly. A pocket of locally higher surface dewpoints is
forecast from eastern Wisconsin into lower Michigan. Within this
pocket, weak instability is expected to develop along the western
edge of the higher surface dewpoints, along and inland from the
western shore of Lake Michigan. Along this north-to-south corridor,
surface heating and low-level convergence will make convective
initiation likely during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z
from Chicago to Milwaukee have 0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 8.5
C/km, which will be favorable for isolated marginally severe gusts.
In addition, 500 mb temps will be relatively cold near -17C, which
could also support a potential for hail with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 310545
SWODY2
SPC AC 310543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas.
Isolated severe storms are also possible with similar timing over
the Carolinas and a portion of the northern Rockies.

...East TX...
A compact shortwave impulse near the Ozarks at 12Z Sunday should
track southeast across the Lower MS Valley towards the central Gulf
Coast. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest to the
west-southwest of this wave, a belt of moderate mid-level to strong
upper-level northwesterlies is anticipated during the afternoon.
With weak low-level winds veering with height, this setup should
yield favorable hodograph elongation for supercells.

The primary uncertainties are 1) the coverage of afternoon storms
and 2) the spatial location for a mesoscale corridor of greater
threat. More aggressive guidance appears to develop convection both
along a convergent dryline towards the I-35 corridor and eastward
within a weak low-level warm theta-e advection regime that is aided
by pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across a confined
plume of rich western Gulf moisture. While there is spatial and
coverage uncertainty, the consensus signal for a few supercells
warrants an upgrade to a level 2-SLGT risk highlight. Scattered
large hail and isolated damaging winds should be the primary hazards
before convection weakens after dusk.

...Northern Rockies...
In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern
Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an
upstream, positive-tilt impulse will shift towards the northern
Rockies Sunday night. The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front
pushing east across much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon
Sunday. Primary severe potential is anticipated within a confined
corridor over the adjacent high terrain to the west-southwest. This
corridor will lie between a belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterlies to its north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic
profiles to its south. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate by mid to late afternoon. Strong to isolated severe gusts
along with small to marginally severe hail are possible.

...Carolinas...
Yet another shortwave impulse rotating through the base of the
persistent longwave trough over the East should aid in mid-afternoon
storm development east of the southern Appalachians. Buoyancy will
be weak amid marginal mid-level lapse rates and low-level
westerlies. But steep low-level lapse rates coupled with sufficient
speed shear should yield a few transient/weak supercell to multicell
structures as convection develops off the higher terrain and along a quasi-stationary front into the evening. Small to marginally severe
hail may develop in initial cores. This would aid in downdrafts
producing strong surface gusts capable of isolated damaging winds.

..Grams.. 05/31/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas. More
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
mid-Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians, central
High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Little change is expected to the overall synoptic regime over the
next 48 hours across the country. Long-wave ridging will persist
across much of the Rockies/Plains with embedded shortwave troughs
propagating across the western CONUS. To the east, a long-wave
trough will undergo gradual de-amplification as it continues to
shift east/northeast. Overall, this synoptic regime will favor
multiple focused corridors of at least low-end strong to severe
thunderstorm potential, though the greatest risk will reside across
parts of TX where buoyancy/shear should be most conducive for
organized convection.

...Central to eastern Texas...
Early-morning convection associated with the progressive shortwave
trough currently over the central Plains will likely be ongoing
across parts of north/northeast TX by 12z Sunday. Recent forecast
guidance suggests this activity will weaken through morning,
possibly leaving an outflow boundary draped across parts of
eastern/central TX. Heating of a moist air mass along and west of
the boundary and/or along a weak surface trough should yield around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon with weak capping. Recent
convective allowing guidance continues to show some uncertainty
regarding convective coverage within this weakly forced regime, but
all solutions show at least a few robust cells developing along the boundary/trough by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow
associated with the departing upper-level perturbation will support
adequate deep-layer wind shear for supercells capable of severe
gusts and large to very large (2+ inches in diameter) hail. While
low-level wind shear is expected to generally be weak for much of
the region, a tornado threat may materialize if convection can
become rooted along the boundary where low-level vorticity may be
locally maximized.

...Tennessee to the Carolinas...
A diffuse cold front currently pushing south across the Midwest/OH
Valley is forecast to stall from southern IL into parts of KY, TN,
and the Carolinas by peak heating Sunday. A combination of moist
low-level conditions and weak capping should facilitate thunderstorm development along the front by late afternoon. 25-30 knot mid-level
flow within the base of a mid-level trough should allow for
sufficient deep-layer wind shear for a few organized cells/clusters
capable of severe hail and sporadic damaging winds. Confidence in
the severe threat is greatest across eastern TN into the Carolinas
where mesoscale ascent along the boundary will be aided by lift
ahead of the trough axis.

...Northern Rockies...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies through Sunday evening. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and modest broad-scale ascent ahead of the
wave should promote thunderstorm development by late afternoon from
eastern ID into western MT. Although overall buoyancy will be modest
(MUCAPE approaching 200-400 J/kg), strong speed shear within the
CAPE-bearing layer (around 35-40 knots within the 0-3 km layer)
should promote some storm organization/longevity with an attendant
hail/wind risk.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development along the eastern slopes of the central
Rockies is anticipated by mid-afternoon within a weak upslope flow
regime. 20-25 knot westerly mid-level flow will not only help
elongate hodographs, but will advect steeper mid-level lapse rates
into the region. This, combined with slightly improved low-level
moisture, should be sufficient for a few robust thunderstorms
capable of severe gusts and perhaps large hail.

...South Florida...
The frontal boundary currently drifting southward along the FL
peninsula is forecast to stall later tonight/early Sunday morning.
Although forcing for ascent along the stalled boundary will be weak,
very moist low-level conditions and limited capping will promote
thunderstorm development across the central peninsula by late
morning. Through late afternoon, additional heating combined with
persistent 25-30 knot mid-level flow aloft should promote some storm organization with an attendant wind threat across southern FL.

..Moore.. 05/31/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 010544
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a
northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern
Rockies along the international border over the northern Great
Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across
the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front
preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern
MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen
near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into
eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos.

...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...
Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD
portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak
mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong
mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely
lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly
multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures
in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains.
Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered
on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet
strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are
possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes.

...KS to southern High Plains vicinity...
Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate
from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent
ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough
over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west
of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north
TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow
enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development,
likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell
structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater
MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early
evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far
downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is
uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater
low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear.

..Grams.. 06/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020541
SWODY2
SPC AC 020539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin
phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper
Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level
southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector,
roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis
should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front.
Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a
surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains.

...TX Big Country to the Ozarks...
More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with
southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized
by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should
yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of
the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells.

Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS
through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX
during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear
segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the
effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two,
transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The
severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night.

...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI...
A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture
return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas
of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant
warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level
lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection
and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the
southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that
appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south
of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average
regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given
the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some
damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley
with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040549
SWODY2
SPC AC 040547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK...
A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this
activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of
this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and
the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much
more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal
destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity,
robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains
from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an
expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon.

With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to
scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the
higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late
afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between
these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low.
Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where
convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible,
with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the
low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident
off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater
hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of
very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this
similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid
strengthening warm advection. This should result in a
forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX
Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The
amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the
degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of
below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant
greater probabilities.

...Mid-South to New England...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.

...Southern Great/High Plains...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will
trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as
diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined
plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are
anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the
cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO,
with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the
Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with
strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a
shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains
through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph
elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving
southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted,
it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief
tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency
to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will
likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well.

The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another
MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with
strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most
guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on
D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e
advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level
moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in
highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind
with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.

...Mid-South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. This MCS should weaken
somewhat in the late morning, but then intensify by midday and
persist through the afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass will
develop ahead of it from the Deep South into at least southern KY
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg common. Deep-layer shear should remain
modest with southern extent, where multicell clusters will dominate.
Closer to the parent MCV, enhanced 700-mb westerlies will be present
and should compensate for weaker destabilization. While isolated
severe hail is possible, mainly within renewed updrafts along the
large-scale outflow and redevelopment on the backside of the MCV,
scattered damaging wind swaths should be the main hazard from KY to
northern parts of MS/AL/GA.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Southeast to the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys...
A large MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across the
OK/AR vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM continues to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential should first emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be
present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and
interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south
and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D1 convection. Considered an upgrade to a
level 3-ENH for damaging wind centered on northern MS/AL/GA, but
have deferred due to mesoscale uncertainties at this time frame.

A likely separate regime of afternoon to evening storm development
should be focused ahead of the central Plains to Midwest shortwave
trough. Primary uncertainty here is the degree of diurnal
destabilization in the wake of/to the north-northwest of the Mid to
Deep South MCS. Have expanded level 2-SLGT risk somewhat north
across the southern MO vicinity, but confidence in overall
intensity/coverage farther downstream is low.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...
In the wake of the large MCS that is expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, guidance remains consistent in suggesting a relative
down-day in terms of late afternoon storms across the southern High
Plains. Convection will probably remain quite isolated and initially
tied to the Raton Mesa and Trans-Pecos vicinities. Isolated
development is also possible in the TX Big Country at the
intersection of the dryline and large-scale outflow from the morning
MCS. Weak low-level warm advection atop this outflow in the evening
should aid in scattered thunderstorms downstream through the
Mid-South. With expansion of the southern Plains EML, a mix of
scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds is possible before
intensity wanes overnight.

...Dakotas vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
amplify into the Dakotas/MN through early Sunday. As this occurs,
the primary surface cyclone should drift east across southern MB. A
cold front will arc to the south-southwest of this cyclone and move
southeast across the Dakotas during the afternoon. MLCAPE should
remain meager with low-quality boundary-layer moisture. But the
strengthening forcing for ascent should support a band of
lower-topped convection. Strong to localized severe gusts are
possible during the late afternoon to early evening when a
well-mixed boundary layer is prevalent.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

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